Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Dubois shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Dubois 49.7% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Dubois 69.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 89.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 70.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 63.2%
63.2%
36.8%
Ryan
Dubois
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Ryan
Dubois
Last 9: Ryan 5-4 Dubois
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dubois
0
4
Ryan
Dubois
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
5
0
Ryan
Dubois
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Dubois
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
49.3% (842)
+11.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.1% (35)
+42.9%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
55.6% (9)
-9.4%
On power play, Ryan has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dubois shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Dubois is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Ryan
Dubois
Home
56.7% (201)
51.0% (445)
Away
54.8% (208)
48.3% (441)
By Period
Ryan
Dubois
P1
56.7%
50.3%
P2
56.8%
49.5%
P3
53.7%
49.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Dubois
44.0%▼
51.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 09:50 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 3 | 05:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 2 | 06:00 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Feb 26, 2024 | 1 | 06:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 06:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:22 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 02:18 | Offensive | Pierre-Luc Dubois |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 1 | 01:57 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |