Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Carpenter 48.5% (+6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 88.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 61.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 80.6%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 80.2%
80.2%
19.8%
Ryan
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Ryan
Carpenter
Last 9: Ryan 6-3 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Carpenter
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Carpenter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Ryan
Carpenter
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
49.6% (2,027)
+7.0%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
41.5% (41)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
43.9% (467)
+3.9%
On power play, Ryan has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Carpenter is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (695).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carpenter
Home
56.2% (2,559)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Ryan
Carpenter
P1
55.1%
49.6%
P2
54.7%
47.7%
P3
56.0%
48.0%
OT
58.3%
55.6%
Final 5 min
52.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 14:55 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 17:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 3 | 17:06 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 05:38 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 1 | 01:51 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 31, 2019 | 3 | 16:48 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 10, 2019 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 19, 2018 | 1 | 12:22 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |