Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 63.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 53.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 76.9%
Neutral zone
Ryan 65.8%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Ryan
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Ryan
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
48.8% (404)
+12.0%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
100.0% (1)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
43.6% (101)
+2.6%
On even strength, Ryan has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Ryan is 63.2% vs right-shot opponents (68).
Ryan shoots right. Carpenter is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (140).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carpenter
Home
56.7% (201)
48.9% (274)
Away
54.8% (208)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Ryan
Carpenter
P1
56.7%
51.9%
P2
56.8%
49.4%
P3
53.7%
41.8%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2023 | 1 | 14:55 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |