Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.6% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Carpenter 51.2% (+4.4%)
Offensive zone
Ryan 54.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 52.1%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 52.7%
52.7%
47.3%
Ryan
Carpenter
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
53.2% (299)
+7.0%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
33.3% (3)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
46.5% (86)
-3.3%
On even strength, Ryan has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Ryan is 55.6% vs right-shot opponents (142).
Ryan shoots right. Carpenter is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Home / Away
Ryan
Carpenter
Home
56.7% (254)
54.6% (207)
Away
55.0% (258)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Ryan
Carpenter
P1
56.9%
52.3%
P2
51.7%
51.5%
P3
59.2%
50.8%
Final 5 min
53.6%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%