Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 56.8%). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.2%
Defensive zone
Ryan 67.5%
Neutral zone
Ryan 52.3%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 51.9%
51.9%
48.1%
Ryan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
Last 6: Ryan 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Ryan
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
56.6% (1,064)
+3.6%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
60.4% (260)
-31.8%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
54.0% (261)
-10.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +31.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Ryan
O'Reilly
Home
56.7% (254)
54.9% (801)
Away
55.0% (258)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Ryan
O'Reilly
P1
56.9%
58.0%
P2
51.7%
56.7%
P3
59.2%
55.4%
OT
0.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
53.6%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2021 | 1 | 16:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 11:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 12:39 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 11:46 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 1 | 08:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |