Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 72.5%
Defensive zone
Ryan 64.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 52.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Ryan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
Last 6: Ryan 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
0
Ryan
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
56.1% (690)
-5.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
64.6% (96)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
45.9% (109)
-0.6%
On power play, Ryan has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Ryan shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Ryan
O'Reilly
Home
53.7% (214)
58.3% (408)
Away
46.4% (220)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Ryan
O'Reilly
P1
45.0%
57.7%
P2
50.0%
54.8%
P3
54.6%
55.2%
Final 5 min
45.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 13:34 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 10:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 15:36 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 19:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |