Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 84.1%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 55.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 86.9%
13.1%
86.9%
Ryan
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Ryan
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
55.0% (1,084)
+5.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
56.8% (303)
+43.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
40.3% (149)
+5.9%
On power play, Ryan has a +43.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Ryan
O'Reilly
Home
56.7% (201)
54.8% (759)
Away
54.8% (208)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Ryan
O'Reilly
P1
56.7%
55.3%
P2
56.8%
51.9%
P3
53.7%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 05:01 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 10:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |