Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +9.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Gagner 46.0% (+9.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ryan 64.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 93.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 87.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 77.4%
77.4%
22.6%
Ryan
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Ryan
Gagner
Last 8: Ryan 6-2 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Gagner
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Gagner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
2
0
Ryan
Gagner
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
45.4% (4,699)
+11.2%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
51.5% (928)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
35.0% (226)
+12.8%
On penalty kill, Ryan has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Ryan is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,417).
Ryan shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
Ryan
Gagner
Home
56.2% (2,559)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Ryan
Gagner
P1
55.1%
44.6%
P2
54.7%
46.1%
P3
56.0%
47.3%
OT
58.3%
42.0%
Final 5 min
52.5%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:59 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Jan 29, 2020 | 1 | 10:44 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 06:26 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 3 | 04:27 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 06:41 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 00:46 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 5, 2017 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Jan 10, 2017 | 3 | 14:05 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |