Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Hertl 52.3% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 59.4%
Defensive zone
Ryan 83.6%
Neutral zone
Ryan 64.7%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 73.3%
73.3%
26.7%
Ryan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Ryan
Hertl
Last 6: Ryan 4-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Ryan
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
51.6% (1,084)
+8.6%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
61.0% (246)
-32.4%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
44.1% (136)
-0.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +32.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Hertl is 57.2% vs right-shot opponents (526).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hertl
Home
56.7% (254)
55.2% (696)
Away
55.0% (258)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Ryan
Hertl
P1
56.9%
55.4%
P2
51.7%
54.8%
P3
59.2%
48.9%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.6%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 13:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 03:46 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 14:27 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 10:21 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 19:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 14:32 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |