Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Hertl 56.8% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 64.3%
Defensive zone
Ryan 84.7%
Neutral zone
Ryan 63.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Ryan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Ryan
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ryan
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Ryan
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
57.0% (718)
+3.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
64.9% (188)
+35.1%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
44.2% (77)
+2.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +35.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hertl
Home
56.7% (201)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.8% (208)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Ryan
Hertl
P1
56.7%
56.3%
P2
56.8%
55.4%
P3
53.7%
60.5%
Final 5 min
56.1%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 13:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |