Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 50.0% vs Hertl 54.5% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 71.6%
Defensive zone
Ryan 88.8%
Neutral zone
Ryan 64.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 50.8%
50.8%
49.2%
Ryan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Ryan
Hertl
Last 7: Ryan 2-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Ryan
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (344)
54.1% (1,117)
-3.2%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
59.8% (296)
+15.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (86)
34.4% (32)
+10.9%
On power play, Ryan has a +15.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ryan is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (336).
Ryan shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Ryan
Hertl
Home
53.7% (214)
54.3% (709)
Away
46.4% (220)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Ryan
Hertl
P1
45.0%
51.6%
P2
50.0%
53.6%
P3
54.6%
58.6%
Final 5 min
45.3%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
50.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 09:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 15:31 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 11:14 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |