Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Ryan on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings). Ryan wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 55.2% vs Karlsson 51.3% (+4.0%)
H2H factor
Ryan leads 27-20 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Ryan 55.7%
Defensive zone
Ryan 68.3%
Neutral zone
Ryan 72.4%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Ryan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
27
-
20
(47 meetings)
27
20
Ryan
Karlsson
Last 10: Ryan 5-5 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
13
7
Ryan
Karlsson
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
8
6
Ryan
Karlsson
14 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Karlsson
6
7
Ryan
Karlsson
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (4,102)
51.8% (7,849)
+4.8%
Power Play
53.2% (342)
54.8% (1,048)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (649)
44.2% (1,109)
+3.6%
On even strength, Ryan has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Ryan is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (3,676).
Ryan shoots right. Karlsson is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (3,455).
Home / Away
Ryan
Karlsson
Home
56.2% (2,559)
52.0% (5,090)
Away
54.4% (2,534)
50.5% (4,916)
By Period
Ryan
Karlsson
P1
55.1%
50.3%
P2
54.7%
51.3%
P3
56.0%
52.4%
OT
58.3%
44.9%
Final 5 min
52.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.3%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:31 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 12:54 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 17:00 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Nov 17, 2019 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 04:47 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 1 | 01:44 | Neutral | William Karlsson |
| Mar 10, 2019 | 3 | 07:10 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |