Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.7% vs 56.2%). Look for Ryan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Ryan wins 54.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.6% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 86.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 79.0%
Neutral zone
Ryan 52.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 66.0%
66.0%
34.0%
Ryan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Ryan
Karlsson
Last 5: Ryan 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
1
Ryan
Karlsson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
3
1
Ryan
Karlsson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
60.8% (263)
56.3% (739)
+4.5%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
58.6% (181)
+41.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (145)
47.2% (53)
-1.0%
On power play, Ryan has a +41.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Ryan is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (341).
Ryan shoots right. Karlsson is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Ryan
Karlsson
Home
56.7% (201)
56.5% (462)
Away
54.8% (208)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Ryan
Karlsson
P1
56.7%
57.1%
P2
56.8%
55.2%
P3
53.7%
56.7%
Final 5 min
56.1%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.7%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 6, 2024 | 1 | 02:37 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 01:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 13:49 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |