Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Ryan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 54.9% vs Karlsson 51.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 70.0%
Defensive zone
Ryan 70.4%
Neutral zone
Ryan 55.1%
Result
Derek Ryan favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Ryan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ryan
Karlsson
Last 5: Ryan 2-3 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
0
2
Ryan
Karlsson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Ryan
Karlsson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
60.2% (387)
51.4% (735)
+8.8%
Power Play
28.6% (7)
63.5% (115)
-34.9%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
42.9% (133)
+0.3%
On power play, Karlsson has a +34.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Ryan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (370).
Ryan shoots right. Karlsson is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (332).
Home / Away
Ryan
Karlsson
Home
56.7% (254)
52.3% (524)
Away
55.0% (258)
51.0% (459)
By Period
Ryan
Karlsson
P1
56.9%
50.7%
P2
51.7%
51.4%
P3
59.2%
53.2%
OT
0.0%
41.2%
Final 5 min
53.6%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 11:59 | Defensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 16, 2022 | 2 | 08:09 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 12:54 | Neutral | Derek Ryan |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 3 | 01:41 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 22, 2021 | 1 | 16:05 | Offensive | William Karlsson |