Scouting Report
Derek Ryan holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Ryan wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ryan 57.4% vs Karlsson 57.1% (+2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 70.9%
Defensive zone
Ryan 67.2%
Neutral zone
Ryan 51.7%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 61.4%
38.6%
61.4%
Ryan
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Ryan
Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
2
Ryan
Karlsson
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ryan
1
0
Ryan
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ryan
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
61.4% (220)
58.6% (597)
+2.8%
Power Play
100.0% (1)
57.9% (57)
+42.1%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (29)
51.9% (52)
-0.2%
On power play, Ryan has a +42.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Ryan is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (194).
Ryan shoots right. Karlsson is 59.0% vs right-shot opponents (239).
Home / Away
Ryan
Karlsson
Home
64.2% (137)
59.6% (344)
Away
55.8% (113)
56.6% (362)
By Period
Ryan
Karlsson
P1
58.9%
53.1%
P2
62.8%
62.1%
P3
59.3%
60.1%
Final 5 min
51.6%
61.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ryan
52.0%▼
60.0%
60.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2024 | 3 | 13:59 | Defensive | Derek Ryan |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 01:31 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 04:23 | Offensive | Derek Ryan |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | William Karlsson |