Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Barbashev 42.2% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 10-2 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 86.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 85.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 85.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 85.7%
85.7%
14.3%
Stepan
Barbashev
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
2
(12 meetings)
10
2
Stepan
Barbashev
Last 10: Stepan 8-2 Barbashev
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Barbashev
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Barbashev
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
6
0
Stepan
Barbashev
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Barbashev
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
42.0% (1,738)
+4.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
46.1% (89)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
36.7% (139)
+7.5%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Barbashev shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Barbashev is 40.9% vs right-shot opponents (793).
Home / Away
Stepan
Barbashev
Home
47.6% (6,608)
42.4% (932)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
41.3% (1,034)
By Period
Stepan
Barbashev
P1
47.5%
40.7%
P2
45.6%
42.3%
P3
46.8%
42.3%
OT
40.7%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.5%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 02:49 | Defensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Nov 12, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 1, 2018 | 2 | 02:59 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 3 | 08:53 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 31, 2018 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 20, 2018 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |