Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +21.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Hughes 38.0% (+21.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 54.8%
Defensive zone
Stepan 87.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 71.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 74.7%
74.7%
25.3%
Stepan
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stepan
Hughes
Last 5: Stepan 3-2 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
0
2
Stepan
Hughes
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Hughes
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
34.5% (342)
+20.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
42.9% (7)
-42.9%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
25.0% (4)
+39.7%
On power play, Hughes has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Hughes is 35.7% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hughes
Home
54.5% (222)
32.6% (187)
Away
57.2% (222)
36.7% (166)
By Period
Stepan
Hughes
P1
57.5%
33.9%
P2
54.7%
34.2%
P3
55.9%
36.5%
Final 5 min
57.5%
29.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |