Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +10.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Hughes 36.6% (+10.4%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 51.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 86.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.0%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Stepan
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Stepan
Hughes
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
1
7
Stepan
Hughes
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
7
0
Stepan
Hughes
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Hughes
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
36.0% (2,887)
+10.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
38.8% (224)
+10.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
31.0% (42)
+13.2%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,222).
Home / Away
Stepan
Hughes
Home
47.6% (6,608)
36.8% (1,670)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
35.4% (1,483)
By Period
Stepan
Hughes
P1
47.5%
36.9%
P2
45.6%
33.6%
P3
46.8%
38.1%
OT
40.7%
37.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
34.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Hughes
38.0%▲
36.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2023 | 2 | 06:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:08 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 17:03 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 12:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 2 | 11:21 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Dec 14, 2019 | 1 | 13:17 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 11:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 3 | 01:45 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 09:14 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 06:54 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 25, 2019 | 1 | 04:22 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |