Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Evans 49.8% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 56.5%
Defensive zone
Evans 53.4%
Neutral zone
Evans 54.0%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Stepan
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Stepan
Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Evans
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
1
2
Stepan
Evans
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.3% (739)
+3.2%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
53.3% (15)
-53.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
43.0% (172)
+21.7%
On power play, Evans has a +53.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Evans is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Stepan
Evans
Home
54.5% (222)
52.1% (503)
Away
57.2% (222)
47.0% (423)
By Period
Stepan
Evans
P1
57.5%
50.5%
P2
54.7%
47.7%
P3
55.9%
51.3%
Final 5 min
57.5%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |