Scouting Report
Jake Evans holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Evans on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Evans shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Evans 52.2% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Evans leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 81.9%
Defensive zone
Evans 74.8%
Neutral zone
Evans 50.8%
Result
Jake Evans favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Stepan
Evans
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Stepan
Evans
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Evans
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Evans
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Evans
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Evans
2
5
Stepan
Evans
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Evans
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.8% (3,695)
-7.3%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
60.0% (70)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.1% (1,222)
-2.9%
On power play, Evans has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Evans shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Evans is 52.6% vs right-shot opponents (1,292).
Home / Away
Stepan
Evans
Home
47.6% (6,608)
53.4% (2,593)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.0% (2,394)
By Period
Stepan
Evans
P1
47.5%
54.0%
P2
45.6%
50.9%
P3
46.8%
52.0%
OT
40.7%
46.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Evans
54.0%▼
60.5%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2023 | 1 | 19:12 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 2 | 07:44 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Dec 30, 2021 | 1 | 05:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 3 | 19:21 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Oct 21, 2021 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 2 | 02:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 6, 2021 | 1 | 02:05 | Neutral | Jake Evans |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 3 | 01:49 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 4, 2021 | 1 | 11:54 | Neutral | Jake Evans |