Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 40.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.2% vs Carter 51.8% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 9-2 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 78.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 78.3%
Neutral zone
Stepan 78.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 78.5%
78.5%
21.5%
Stepan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
9
(11 meetings)
2
9
Stepan
Carter
Last 10: Stepan 2-8 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
0
5
Stepan
Carter
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carter
1
4
Stepan
Carter
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Carter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
48.2% (1,155)
53.4% (1,137)
-5.2%
Power Play
48.2% (193)
48.7% (154)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (174)
42.7% (124)
-4.8%
On even strength, Carter has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Stepan is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (458).
Stepan shoots right. Carter is 49.7% vs right-shot opponents (451).
Home / Away
Stepan
Carter
Home
46.4% (774)
54.8% (753)
Away
47.7% (748)
48.6% (662)
By Period
Stepan
Carter
P1
46.7%
52.8%
P2
46.3%
53.0%
P3
48.1%
49.9%
OT
47.6%
53.3%
Final 5 min
46.7%
49.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.0%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2017 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 08:03 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Mar 25, 2017 | 1 | 05:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 18:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 2 | 07:07 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 1 | 14:43 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 1 | 00:40 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 23, 2017 | 1 | 00:24 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |