Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 27 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Carter 53.2% (-6.7%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 44-33 in 77 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 84.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 84.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 80.7%
80.7%
19.3%
Stepan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
33
-
44
(77 meetings)
33
44
Stepan
Carter
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carter
12
14
Stepan
Carter
26 total
Defensive Zone
Even
12
12
Stepan
Carter
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
9
18
Stepan
Carter
27 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.3% (8,728)
-6.8%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
57.3% (1,554)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
46.3% (1,087)
-2.1%
On power play, Carter has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Carter is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,429).
Home / Away
Stepan
Carter
Home
47.6% (6,608)
54.7% (5,752)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.6% (5,632)
By Period
Stepan
Carter
P1
47.5%
53.6%
P2
45.6%
52.8%
P3
46.8%
53.1%
OT
40.7%
56.5%
Final 5 min
47.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 07:04 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 22, 2022 | 2 | 08:12 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 09:07 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 05:03 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 3 | 04:40 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2019 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 11:35 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 3 | 09:31 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 08:52 | Defensive | Jeff Carter |
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 05:39 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |