Scouting Report
Jeff Carter holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Carter on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 45.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.7% vs Carter 51.1% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Carter leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 71.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 68.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Stepan
Carter
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Stepan
Carter
Last 10: Stepan 3-7 Carter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
Carter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Carter
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carter
0
5
Stepan
Carter
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Carter
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (877)
52.2% (552)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.4% (103)
56.4% (94)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (217)
41.0% (100)
+4.2%
On even strength, Carter has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carter shoots right. Stepan is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Stepan shoots right. Carter is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (179).
Home / Away
Stepan
Carter
Home
50.4% (560)
51.2% (324)
Away
45.1% (637)
51.2% (422)
By Period
Stepan
Carter
P1
47.4%
49.8%
P2
47.0%
52.8%
P3
48.1%
51.2%
OT
50.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.5%
Carter
62.0%▬
61.5%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 30, 2020 | 3 | 04:59 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 2 | 08:11 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 1 | 08:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Jan 30, 2020 | 1 | 06:00 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 10:25 | Neutral | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 2 | 06:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |
| Nov 23, 2019 | 1 | 05:03 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 18, 2019 | 1 | 16:00 | Offensive | Jeff Carter |