Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Pavelski 52.2% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 68.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 77.9%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 77.9%
77.9%
22.1%
Stepan
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stepan
Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Pavelski
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
52.5% (570)
+2.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
54.5% (145)
-54.5%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
44.4% (36)
+20.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +54.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Pavelski is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (163).
Home / Away
Stepan
Pavelski
Home
54.5% (222)
55.0% (391)
Away
57.2% (222)
49.7% (360)
By Period
Stepan
Pavelski
P1
57.5%
50.8%
P2
54.7%
55.0%
P3
55.9%
52.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |