Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 22 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Pavelski shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Pavelski 54.1% (-7.7%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 35-26 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 83.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 74.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 87.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 80.6%
19.4%
80.6%
Stepan
Pavelski
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
26
(61 meetings)
35
26
Stepan
Pavelski
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Pavelski
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
16
6
Stepan
Pavelski
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
12
13
Stepan
Pavelski
25 total
Neutral Zone
Even
7
7
Stepan
Pavelski
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Pavelski
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.6% (8,791)
-7.1%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
58.2% (2,122)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.9% (1,138)
-6.7%
On power play, Pavelski has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Pavelski shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Home / Away
Stepan
Pavelski
Home
47.6% (6,608)
56.4% (5,998)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.0% (6,076)
By Period
Stepan
Pavelski
P1
47.5%
53.5%
P2
45.6%
55.2%
P3
46.8%
53.9%
OT
40.7%
52.3%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2022 | 3 | 11:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 19, 2020 | 2 | 18:42 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 3 | 03:07 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 12:53 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 00:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 2, 2019 | 1 | 04:35 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:43 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 16, 2019 | 1 | 14:10 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 3 | 10:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2018 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 18:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 3 | 15:10 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 18:37 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 8, 2018 | 2 | 04:53 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 2 | 02:54 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2018 | 1 | 13:48 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |