Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Tavares 59.8% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 62.5%
Defensive zone
Stepan 83.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 58.1%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Stepan
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Stepan
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Stepan
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
60.9% (1,043)
-6.4%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
60.4% (278)
-60.4%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
47.6% (21)
+17.1%
On power play, Tavares has a +60.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Stepan
Tavares
Home
54.5% (222)
63.5% (684)
Away
57.2% (222)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Stepan
Tavares
P1
57.5%
60.3%
P2
54.7%
60.4%
P3
55.9%
60.1%
Final 5 min
57.5%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |