Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (66% H2H, 95 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Tavares 54.4% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 144-133 in 277 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 82.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 53.2%
Neutral zone
Tavares 72.1%
Result
John Tavares favored at 69.5%
30.5%
69.5%
Stepan
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
144
-
133
(277 meetings)
144
133
Stepan
Tavares
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
39
63
Stepan
Tavares
102 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
63
32
Stepan
Tavares
95 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
42
38
Stepan
Tavares
80 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
54.0% (16,108)
-7.5%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
56.5% (4,283)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.6% (620)
-6.4%
On power play, Tavares has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Home / Away
Stepan
Tavares
Home
47.6% (6,608)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Stepan
Tavares
P1
47.5%
55.0%
P2
45.6%
54.1%
P3
46.8%
54.1%
OT
40.7%
55.9%
Final 5 min
47.5%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2023 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 6, 2022 | 2 | 12:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 17, 2022 | 2 | 11:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:53 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 14:20 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 25, 2021 | 2 | 06:00 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 16:24 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 19:37 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 10:29 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 08:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 10:51 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 2 | 03:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 17, 2021 | 1 | 08:50 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 15:47 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2021 | 3 | 12:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |