Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (44.5% vs 43.9%). Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stepan wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.1% vs Bailey 44.6% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 10-5 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 81.1%
Defensive zone
Bailey 60.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 57.5%
57.5%
42.5%
Stepan
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
5
(15 meetings)
10
5
Stepan
Bailey
Last 10: Stepan 7-3 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
5
1
Stepan
Bailey
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Stepan
Bailey
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (680)
44.2% (579)
+0.7%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
52.5% (40)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
29.8% (57)
39.8% (108)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Bailey has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (620).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 42.6% vs right-shot opponents (230).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
45.6% (463)
45.9% (375)
Away
43.3% (404)
41.8% (361)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
50.2%
47.3%
P2
39.4%
40.4%
P3
45.7%
43.3%
OT
38.9%
63.6%
Final 5 min
48.2%
44.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.5%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
43.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2012 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 1 | 11:15 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 14:05 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 18:39 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 26, 2011 | 1 | 01:16 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 3 | 08:29 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 2 | 19:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 18:29 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 10:46 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 22, 2011 | 1 | 04:27 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Oct 15, 2011 | 3 | 02:09 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |