Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Bailey 45.5% (+1.2%)
H2H factor
Stepan leads 23-18 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.1%
Defensive zone
Stepan 62.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 59.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 59.0%
59.0%
41.0%
Stepan
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
18
(41 meetings)
23
18
Stepan
Bailey
Last 10: Stepan 6-4 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
7
6
Stepan
Bailey
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
10
5
Stepan
Bailey
15 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
6
7
Stepan
Bailey
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
45.8% (1,991)
+0.7%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
48.1% (295)
+0.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
39.9% (281)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 42.7% vs right-shot opponents (995).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
47.6% (6,608)
46.6% (1,353)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
44.0% (1,232)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
47.5%
46.5%
P2
45.6%
44.8%
P3
46.8%
44.4%
OT
40.7%
51.1%
Final 5 min
47.5%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
45.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 12:08 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 19:13 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 2 | 11:43 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 18:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 24, 2017 | 1 | 16:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 1 | 13:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2013 | 3 | 02:50 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 11, 2012 | 2 | 01:38 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |