Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +12.6% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Bailey 45.9% (+12.6%)
Offensive zone
Bailey 73.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 79.5%
Neutral zone
Bailey 50.5%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Stepan
Bailey
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
41.7% (84)
+13.6%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
28.6% (7)
-28.6%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
60.0% (5)
-9.2%
On power play, Bailey has a +28.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 42.1% vs right-shot opponents (38).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
57.7% (213)
37.9% (58)
Away
50.7% (209)
47.4% (38)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
56.3%
47.2%
P2
48.9%
41.7%
P3
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
36.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
41.7%