Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +16.8% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Bailey shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Bailey 44.3% (+16.8%)
Offensive zone
Bailey 72.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 84.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Stepan
Bailey
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
39.8% (83)
+14.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
27.3% (22)
-27.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
80.0% (5)
-15.3%
On power play, Bailey has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 30.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
54.5% (222)
33.3% (48)
Away
57.2% (222)
43.5% (62)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
57.5%
33.3%
P2
54.7%
47.2%
P3
55.9%
39.4%
Final 5 min
57.5%
38.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
39.1%