Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.9% vs 46.7%). Look for Stepan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.2% vs Bailey 48.6% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.3%
Defensive zone
Bailey 63.0%
Neutral zone
Bailey 50.2%
Result
Josh Bailey favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Stepan
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Stepan
Bailey
Last 8: Stepan 5-3 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
0
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
Stepan
Bailey
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (750)
51.8% (56)
-3.8%
Power Play
36.3% (113)
0.0% (1)
+36.3%
Penalty Kill
41.6% (113)
33.3% (18)
+8.3%
On power play, Stepan has a +36.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (617).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 49.0% vs right-shot opponents (51).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
47.4% (460)
53.5% (43)
Away
44.5% (517)
37.5% (32)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
50.3%
33.3%
P2
38.4%
60.0%
P3
49.4%
44.8%
OT
27.3%
60.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.9%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 18:46 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 3 | 02:11 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 2 | 00:09 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Apr 13, 2013 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 1 | 16:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 7, 2013 | 1 | 13:18 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 14, 2013 | 3 | 02:50 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |