Scouting Report
Josh Bailey holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.5% vs Bailey 51.1% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bailey 53.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 76.4%
Neutral zone
Stepan 59.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.7%
63.7%
36.3%
Stepan
Bailey
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stepan
Bailey
Last 6: Stepan 2-4 Bailey
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
2
Stepan
Bailey
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
1
Stepan
Bailey
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bailey
0
1
Stepan
Bailey
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Bailey
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (991)
51.3% (236)
-4.5%
Power Play
48.8% (211)
56.3% (32)
-7.5%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
25.0% (4)
+23.3%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +23.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bailey shoots left. Stepan is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (958).
Stepan shoots right. Bailey is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (101).
Home / Away
Stepan
Bailey
Home
48.6% (666)
55.0% (140)
Away
46.1% (710)
47.7% (132)
By Period
Stepan
Bailey
P1
46.3%
57.1%
P2
50.7%
50.0%
P3
45.5%
47.8%
OT
39.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
42.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
Bailey
42.0%▬
41.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2018 | 3 | 12:08 | Defensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 08:11 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 2 | 02:06 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 09:19 | Neutral | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 04:29 | Offensive | Josh Bailey |
| Dec 18, 2018 | 1 | 00:56 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |