Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.3% vs 53.7%). Look for Eller on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Eller 53.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 61.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 63.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 51.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 51.4%
48.6%
51.4%
Stepan
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Stepan
Eller
Last 7: Stepan 3-4 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
0
2
Stepan
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
1
2
Stepan
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
53.8% (865)
+1.5%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
57.1% (21)
-57.1%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
52.6% (137)
-1.8%
On power play, Eller has a +57.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Eller is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Stepan
Eller
Home
57.7% (213)
56.4% (486)
Away
50.7% (209)
51.2% (537)
By Period
Stepan
Eller
P1
56.3%
55.1%
P2
48.9%
55.3%
P3
57.1%
51.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |