Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 30 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Eller 50.5% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 43-37 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 74.6%
Defensive zone
Eller 51.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 57.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Stepan
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
37
-
43
(80 meetings)
37
43
Stepan
Eller
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
19
11
Stepan
Eller
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
8
22
Stepan
Eller
30 total
Neutral Zone
Even
10
10
Stepan
Eller
20 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
51.1% (10,296)
-4.6%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
52.8% (621)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
46.7% (1,751)
-2.5%
On even strength, Eller has a +4.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,573).
Home / Away
Stepan
Eller
Home
47.6% (6,608)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Stepan
Eller
P1
47.5%
51.2%
P2
45.6%
50.1%
P3
46.8%
50.2%
OT
40.7%
56.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:10 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 18:42 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 18, 2023 | 1 | 02:11 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 2 | 08:35 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 28, 2022 | 2 | 06:47 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 17:25 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 17:10 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 14:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 06:57 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 15, 2020 | 1 | 06:47 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 11, 2019 | 3 | 18:44 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2019 | 3 | 13:13 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 11, 2019 | 3 | 09:49 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 11, 2019 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 11, 2019 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | Lars Eller |