Scouting Report
Marcus Foligno holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 45.3% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 45.5% vs Foligno 48.9% (-3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 59.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 55.6%
Neutral zone
Foligno 50.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.9%
53.9%
46.1%
Stepan
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Stepan
Foligno
Last 7: Stepan 3-4 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
3
Stepan
Foligno
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
43.8% (1,141)
46.9% (258)
-3.1%
Power Play
52.2% (253)
59.4% (32)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.2% (118)
54.5% (11)
-11.3%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Stepan is 45.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,028).
Stepan shoots right. Foligno is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Stepan
Foligno
Home
47.8% (828)
43.4% (143)
Away
42.0% (684)
53.2% (158)
By Period
Stepan
Foligno
P1
49.5%
46.7%
P2
42.0%
53.1%
P3
44.3%
45.2%
OT
41.2%
57.1%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
45.2%
Foligno
42.0%▲
40.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2013 | 3 | 13:23 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 03:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 18:54 | Neutral | Marcus Foligno |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 16:46 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 31, 2013 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Marcus Foligno |