Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 44.5% vs Backlund 48.5% (-4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 73.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.8%
Neutral zone
Stepan 60.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.4%
63.4%
36.6%
Stepan
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Stepan
Backlund
Last 6: Stepan 2-4 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Backlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
1
Stepan
Backlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
0
3
Stepan
Backlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
43.5% (942)
50.1% (711)
-6.6%
Power Play
48.1% (162)
43.2% (81)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (128)
38.6% (83)
+4.4%
On even strength, Backlund has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Stepan is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (812).
Stepan shoots right. Backlund is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (360).
Home / Away
Stepan
Backlund
Home
45.6% (629)
51.0% (396)
Away
42.5% (603)
46.1% (479)
By Period
Stepan
Backlund
P1
44.7%
43.9%
P2
43.7%
51.5%
P3
43.9%
51.0%
OT
40.0%
12.5%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
44.1%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 12:24 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 05:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 05:41 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 3 | 03:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 24, 2015 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |