Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 56.8% vs left-shot opponents — Backlund shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Backlund 50.5% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 69.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 80.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 70.8%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 73.0%
73.0%
27.0%
Stepan
Backlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Stepan
Backlund
Last 8: Stepan 7-1 Backlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Backlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
2
0
Stepan
Backlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
4
1
Stepan
Backlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Backlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
51.5% (983)
+3.0%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
49.4% (87)
-49.4%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
45.3% (159)
+19.4%
On power play, Backlund has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Backlund shoots left. Stepan is 56.8% vs left-shot opponents (324).
Stepan shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Home / Away
Stepan
Backlund
Home
54.5% (222)
51.6% (653)
Away
57.2% (222)
49.3% (576)
By Period
Stepan
Backlund
P1
57.5%
50.0%
P2
54.7%
49.8%
P3
55.9%
51.7%
Final 5 min
57.5%
50.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 7, 2022 | 3 | 08:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2022 | 1 | 17:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Jan 7, 2022 | 1 | 17:15 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 7, 2022 | 1 | 01:45 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 19:59 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 04:30 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 16:22 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 18:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |