Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stepan wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.5% vs MacKinnon 44.2% (+3.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.8%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 53.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 59.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Stepan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Stepan
MacKinnon
Last 8: Stepan 3-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Stepan
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Stepan
MacKinnon
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Stepan
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (991)
42.8% (1,039)
+4.0%
Power Play
48.8% (211)
50.8% (118)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (174)
46.2% (26)
+2.1%
On even strength, Stepan has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stepan is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (418).
Stepan shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (294).
Home / Away
Stepan
MacKinnon
Home
48.6% (666)
48.0% (586)
Away
46.1% (710)
39.5% (597)
By Period
Stepan
MacKinnon
P1
46.3%
46.1%
P2
50.7%
41.5%
P3
45.5%
43.8%
OT
39.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
42.9%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2019 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |