Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs MacKinnon 44.9% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 55.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 68.1%
Neutral zone
Stepan 68.2%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 68.1%
68.1%
31.9%
Stepan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Stepan
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
44.7% (1,053)
+10.6%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
36.8% (95)
-36.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
65.0% (20)
-14.2%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +36.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stepan is 52.8% vs right-shot opponents (108).
Stepan shoots right. MacKinnon is 44.5% vs right-shot opponents (308).
Home / Away
Stepan
MacKinnon
Home
57.7% (213)
49.4% (553)
Away
50.7% (209)
40.0% (615)
By Period
Stepan
MacKinnon
P1
56.3%
45.3%
P2
48.9%
42.7%
P3
57.1%
45.1%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |