Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs MacKinnon 45.9% (+10.5%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 55.6%
Defensive zone
Stepan 67.0%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.6%
53.6%
46.4%
Stepan
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
45.8% (755)
+8.7%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
48.3% (60)
-48.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
27.6% (29)
+37.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +48.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. MacKinnon is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Stepan
MacKinnon
Home
54.5% (222)
49.5% (396)
Away
57.2% (222)
41.7% (448)
By Period
Stepan
MacKinnon
P1
57.5%
50.2%
P2
54.7%
43.8%
P3
55.9%
41.4%
Final 5 min
57.5%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
45.4%