Derek Stepan vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.5% vs 46.8%). Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (56% H2H, 18 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 23-23 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 54.4%
Defensive zone
Stepan 51.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Stepan
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
23
(46 meetings)
23
23
Stepan
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stepan 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Stepan
MacKinnon
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
10
8
Stepan
MacKinnon
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
7
9
Stepan
MacKinnon
16 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
46.1% (11,218)
+0.4%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
53.3% (1,412)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
42.8% (502)
+1.4%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Stepan
MacKinnon
Home
47.6% (6,608)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Stepan
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
47.4%
P2
45.6%
46.6%
P3
46.8%
46.1%
OT
40.7%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 16:01 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 11:08 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:17 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 16:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 02:43 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 2, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 3 | 10:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2019 | 2 | 01:30 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 3 | 09:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 29, 2019 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 19:34 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 2 | 04:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 22, 2018 | 1 | 00:21 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 2 | 10:15 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 23, 2018 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |