Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Kadri on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kadri shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Kadri 47.7% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kadri 82.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.0%
Neutral zone
Kadri 56.6%
Result
Nazem Kadri favored at 72.6%
27.4%
72.6%
Stepan
Kadri
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stepan
Kadri
Last 5: Stepan 2-3 Kadri
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kadri
1
3
Stepan
Kadri
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Kadri
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Kadri
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
46.2% (1,005)
+9.1%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
57.3% (199)
-57.3%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
26.7% (30)
+24.1%
On power play, Kadri has a +57.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kadri shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Kadri is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (441).
Home / Away
Stepan
Kadri
Home
57.7% (213)
47.4% (641)
Away
50.7% (209)
47.6% (593)
By Period
Stepan
Kadri
P1
56.3%
46.9%
P2
48.9%
49.5%
P3
57.1%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.6%
46.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Kadri
36.0%▼
39.5%
47.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:34 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 03:05 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 09:32 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 22, 2022 | 2 | 04:09 | Offensive | Nazem Kadri |