Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stepan wins 45.9% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 47.9% vs Schmaltz 41.2% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 76.3%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 84.3%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 75.7%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 78.4%
21.6%
78.4%
Stepan
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Stepan
Schmaltz
Last 10: Stepan 2-8 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
2
Stepan
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
0
5
Stepan
Schmaltz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
47.0% (1,210)
39.5% (658)
+7.5%
Power Play
51.7% (232)
41.3% (92)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (108)
45.1% (51)
+2.1%
On power play, Stepan has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Stepan is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (471).
Stepan shoots right. Schmaltz is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (273).
Home / Away
Stepan
Schmaltz
Home
48.2% (761)
40.8% (424)
Away
47.3% (789)
39.3% (377)
By Period
Stepan
Schmaltz
P1
46.3%
38.4%
P2
50.4%
40.7%
P3
46.3%
41.0%
OT
55.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
42.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
47.7%
Schmaltz
40.0%▼
46.0%
40.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |