Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Schmaltz 42.5% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Schmaltz leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 80.0%
Defensive zone
Stepan 53.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 64.6%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 62.7%
37.3%
62.7%
Stepan
Schmaltz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
8
(12 meetings)
4
8
Stepan
Schmaltz
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Schmaltz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stepan
Schmaltz
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
1
2
Stepan
Schmaltz
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
5
Stepan
Schmaltz
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
41.2% (3,399)
+5.3%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
47.1% (649)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
47.8% (134)
-3.6%
On even strength, Stepan has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Schmaltz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (1,167).
Home / Away
Stepan
Schmaltz
Home
47.6% (6,608)
42.7% (2,089)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
41.9% (2,093)
By Period
Stepan
Schmaltz
P1
47.5%
41.1%
P2
45.6%
42.9%
P3
46.8%
43.0%
OT
40.7%
42.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
42.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2018 | 2 | 06:34 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 18, 2018 | 1 | 11:43 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 19:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 07:29 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 3 | 04:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 09:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 08:48 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Oct 21, 2017 | 1 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |