Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Schmaltz shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Schmaltz 48.4% (+8.2%)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 73.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 79.5%
Neutral zone
Stepan 52.9%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Stepan
Schmaltz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Schmaltz
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
42.9% (133)
+11.6%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.1% (89)
-55.1%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
47.1% (17)
+17.6%
On power play, Schmaltz has a +55.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Schmaltz shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Schmaltz is 47.5% vs right-shot opponents (61).
Home / Away
Stepan
Schmaltz
Home
54.5% (222)
41.6% (125)
Away
57.2% (222)
54.4% (114)
By Period
Stepan
Schmaltz
P1
57.5%
40.0%
P2
54.7%
59.5%
P3
55.9%
45.0%
Final 5 min
57.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
47.7%