Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stepan wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 53.4% vs Cates 40.4% (+14.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 89.2%
Defensive zone
Stepan 77.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 83.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Stepan
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stepan
Cates
Last 5: Stepan 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (358)
40.4% (841)
+14.9%
Power Play
0.0% (3)
42.4% (66)
-42.4%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (61)
32.7% (147)
+18.1%
On power play, Cates has a +42.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stepan is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (314).
Stepan shoots right. Cates is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (305).
Home / Away
Stepan
Cates
Home
57.7% (213)
38.2% (566)
Away
50.7% (209)
41.0% (488)
By Period
Stepan
Cates
P1
56.3%
40.5%
P2
48.9%
42.4%
P3
57.1%
35.3%
Final 5 min
57.6%
36.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
54.3%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
39.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |