Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Cates 43.2% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stepan 83.9%
Defensive zone
Stepan 63.6%
Neutral zone
Stepan 63.6%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 63.6%
63.6%
36.4%
Stepan
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stepan
Cates
Last 5: Stepan 4-1 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
3
1
Stepan
Cates
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Cates
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
44.1% (2,742)
+2.4%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
43.0% (242)
+5.8%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
34.9% (373)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Stepan has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Stepan is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,190).
Stepan shoots right. Cates is 45.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,073).
Home / Away
Stepan
Cates
Home
47.6% (6,608)
43.8% (1,663)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
42.1% (1,694)
By Period
Stepan
Cates
P1
47.5%
44.5%
P2
45.6%
43.5%
P3
46.8%
41.2%
OT
40.7%
29.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
41.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Cates
46.0%▼
50.0%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Derek Stepan |
| Mar 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 10:20 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2022 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |