Scouting Report
Derek Stepan holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Stepan wins 53.3% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 54.8% vs Johansen 52.4% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 77.7%
Defensive zone
Stepan 65.1%
Neutral zone
Johansen 56.2%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Stepan
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Stepan
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
1
Stepan
Johansen
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
1
0
Stepan
Johansen
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Stepan
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (374)
49.4% (1,010)
+5.1%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
62.3% (236)
-62.3%
Penalty Kill
64.7% (68)
67.2% (67)
-2.5%
On power play, Johansen has a +62.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Stepan is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (120).
Stepan shoots right. Johansen is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Stepan
Johansen
Home
54.5% (222)
54.7% (655)
Away
57.2% (222)
50.6% (658)
By Period
Stepan
Johansen
P1
57.5%
52.2%
P2
54.7%
50.7%
P3
55.9%
54.8%
Final 5 min
57.5%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
55.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |