Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stepan on defensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 38 meetings). Stepan wins 44.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stepan 46.6% vs Johansen 53.3% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Johansen leads 51-51 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Stepan 50.3%
Defensive zone
Stepan 53.2%
Neutral zone
Stepan 54.4%
Result
Derek Stepan favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Stepan
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
51
-
51
(102 meetings)
51
51
Stepan
Johansen
Last 10: Stepan 4-6 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
16
20
Stepan
Johansen
36 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stepan
23
15
Stepan
Johansen
38 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Johansen
12
16
Stepan
Johansen
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stepan
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
46.5% (10,204)
53.1% (11,017)
-6.6%
Power Play
48.8% (1,593)
56.2% (2,163)
-7.4%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,368)
50.5% (978)
-6.3%
On power play, Johansen has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Stepan is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,991).
Stepan shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Stepan
Johansen
Home
47.6% (6,608)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
45.5% (6,573)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Stepan
Johansen
P1
47.5%
53.2%
P2
45.6%
53.9%
P3
46.8%
52.8%
OT
40.7%
58.2%
Final 5 min
47.5%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stepan
50.0%▼
55.5%
46.5%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 19:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:37 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Oct 16, 2021 | 2 | 11:29 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 15:09 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 2 | 03:43 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:18 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Oct 17, 2019 | 1 | 01:41 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 14:52 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:44 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 10:55 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 5, 2019 | 1 | 16:18 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 3 | 01:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 10:25 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 03:53 | Offensive | Derek Stepan |
| Nov 29, 2018 | 2 | 03:40 | Defensive | Derek Stepan |